household debt

Bank of Korea
2026-10-21 03:15:37

Bank of Korea Seen Holding at 3% This Week as Markets Shift Focus to a Possible November Hike

The Bank of Korea is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 3% on Oct. 22, with all 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting no move after back-to-back quarter-point hikes in July and August. The debate has shifted to the Nov. 26 meeting, where most surveyed economists expect another 25-basis-point increase to 3.25%, while views on the eventual peak rate cluster around 3.5% and, in some cases, 3.75%. Governor Rhee Chang-yong has said the central bank needs time to assess the impact of the two earlier hikes, and he has also argued that moving before the Federal Reserve’s September increase bought policymakers time and reduced the risk of a later defensive response under market pressure. He has also acknowledged that tighter policy weighs more heavily on lower-income borrowers. Inflation data have softened on the surface, but the article notes that part of the cooling reflects base effects tied to telecom fee discounts a year earlier. Core inflation in September still stood above both July’s level and the 2% target. At the same time, rising Seoul-area home prices, record household debt above KRW 2,000 trillion in the second quarter, and spillover from the semiconductor boom remain key variables for the policy path. Markets are now watching dissenting votes, the board’s three-month rate outlook, and the governor’s press conference language for clues on November.

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